Thursday, May 6, 2010

Risks facing South Africa











































































Risks facing South Africa
4 May 2010
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Feuding within the ruling African National Congress, the World Cup, regular violent public service protests and power supply problems could all affect investor sentiment in South Africa.
Africa’s biggest economy is struggling to recover from last year’s recession and households remain under strain.
This leaves investment as a key potential driver of growth. However, tyres burnt in protests ahead of the June hosting of the World Cup, racially tinged slogans and demands for nationalisation are threatening the investment outlook.
ANC INFIGHTING
Julius Malema, the outspoken leader of the ANC’s youth wing, is stoking racial tension and deepening divisions within the ruling party ahead of a crucial policy-setting conference in September.
The upstart has defied calls for restraint in public statements after breaking with ANC policy by backing Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe and for continuing to sing racial songs, including
“Kill the Boer” (Kill the farmer).
President Jacob Zuma rebuked Malema last month and ANC leaders have moved to discipline him.
While primarily an internal party issue, the process will be closely watched with Malema having polarised the ANC and wider society.
Any disciplinary action is fraught with pitfalls, setting the militant youth wing against more experienced party leaders.
It may also expose loyalties and ambition, with some weighing the cost of opposing Malema versus the loss of the youth support in future leadership campaigns, particularly ahead of September’s policy meeting.
Malema’s Zimbabwe-style campaign for mines to be nationalised and for land to be seized and handed to blacks has spooked investors, prompting reassurances from the government.
What to watch:
— Malema has appeared before an ANC disciplinary hearing.
If he manages to side-step disciplinary action it will signal he has the backing of most of the ANC’s top decision making body, the national executive committee, giving him impetus to keep pushing for nationalisation.
— The policy conference in September will set the agenda for debate ahead of the ANC’s 5-yearly national convention due in late 2012. Issues such as nationalisation will be proposed at that meeting.
— Signs more controversial, militant leaders are gaining prominence, or if the party agrees to move policy towards a more pro-poor left wing stance will stoke investor fears. A shift in policy has been the biggest concern for investors since Zuma rose to prominence, given the backing he received from the trade unions, communists and youth movement.
— Any change will likely weaken the rand (ZAR>) through negative investor sentiment. Some ANC members may push for concrete proposals to intervene to ensure a weaker currency.
WORLD CUP
Hosting the world’s biggest sporting spectacular from June 11 to July 11 is both an opportunity and a risk.
Should something go wrong — high profile crime victims, transport mayhem or a terrorist attack — any benefit of staging the tournament would be lost, and prove a disaster for South Africa’s image.
The national and regional governments have spent an estimated 40 billion rand to host the first World Cup in Africa, which is forecast to boost economic growth by 0,5 percentage points this year.
The government hopes it will help attract millions more tourists over the next five years.
The bulk of the economic boost will come from foreign spending, with about 230,000 overseas fans seen buying tickets for games and more than 100,000 others expected from Africa and elsewhere.
Although much of the money spent has improved infrastructure, particularly roads, the political fallout could be huge if the tournament is not seen as recouping the spending.
Conversely, a successful and largely incident-free World Cup will elevate South Africa’s profile abroad and paper over the racial cracks in its society — much like the Rugby World Cup in 1995.
What to watch:
— Violence in the run-up to the tournament will scare fans and damage the country’s image for tourism and investment. Less foreign spending will limit the currency inflows and hurt the rand currency.
— High-profile crime incidents or a terrorist attack during the event will be devastating, given the focus that will be on the country, hitting markets as investors pull money out.
STRIKES/PROTESTS AND THE LEFT
Often-violent protests for better living conditions in sprawling townships have hurt the government, damaging the ANC’s — and President Zuma’s — image as a party for the poor.
Pictures of stone-throwing youths, burning tyres barricading main roads and police firing rubber bullets at rampaging mobs are often seen in newspapers abroad, and could hit investor sentiment should they continue or escalate.
Coupled with that is the rise in the number and militancy of strikes, which pick at cracks in the relationship between Zuma’s government and the ANC’s powerful trade union federation ally COSATU and the small, yet influential, Communist Party.
COSATU and the SACP helped Zuma to the top ANC post and in national elections last year but are unhappy over the government mostly shrugging off demands for left wing economic policies.
Already this year there have been 54 major protests over lack of basic services compared with 105 for the whole of 2009 and 27 in 2008, according to Municipal IQ, a local government monitoring service.
Nearly half the protests took place in Gauteng, the main industrial and financial region around Johannesburg.
What to watch:
— Further deterioration in the relationship between the trade unions and Zuma’s government will lead to confrontation and more militant demands for change. The government will be under pressure from leftist cabinet ministers and influential ruling party figures to give in to the demands.
This will scare investors who fear a move away from centrist economic policy. So far, initial fears of a shift have proved unfounded with Zuma sticking to the previous conservative stance.
— A breakdown in relations with COSATU and the SACP, as well as a failure to be seen to change living conditions in townships, will damage Zuma’s chances of a second presidential term. No-one has put their name forward to run against Zuma, although Housing Minister and ANC heavyweight Tokyo Sexwale and COSATU leader Zwelinzima Vavi are known to have presidential ambitions.
— An escalation in protests and strikes will receive wide coverage in newspapers abroad, undermining investor sentiment.
Widespread strikes are seen as a weight on the rand, which has underperformed other emerging market currencies in 2010.
POWER AND MONEY
Electricity supply worries continue to haunt businesses and households, and efforts by state-owned utility Eskom to raise money to build new power stations are proving tough.
Any repeat of the power crisis in early 2008 that almost collapsed the energy grid and forced mines and smelters to shut for days will deter investment.
Eskom has warned of another power crunch between 2011 and 2013 unless more stations are built. Johannesburg is already suffering blackouts blamed on technical problems.
South Africa’s economy has performed well over the last decade, save for the globally-led recession in 2009, but unemployment remains one of its biggest problems. Nearly one in four of the labour force is without work.
Dwindling investment, particularly into big labour-absorbing and energy-consuming manufacturing projects, will exacerbate joblessness and heap pressure on the government to do more to help the poor.
What to watch:
— Continuing blackouts, especially during the World Cup, will hurt businesses and damage sentiment.
— A failure to raise enough money to build new plants may scare off direct investment as businesses and manufacturers will be unwilling to put big money into smelters and other factories should power security remain a concern. Using price hikes to raise money will increase costs for companies.
— The blackouts of early 2008 sent the rand and stock market sharply lower, with mining stocks such as Anglo Platinum, Impala Platinum, Gold Fields and AngloGold Ashanti, taking a massive knock.
Reuters
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Genocide Being Committed Against South African Whites
Every day hundreds of mails are sent around the world, asking for help to save some animal species.Is it not very strange how the whole world is ignoring the apparent Genocide being committed against the white people in South Africa?This slaughter of whites by blacks is being portrayed in the media as - "merely crime related"Is it not very strange how the whole world is ignoring the apparent Genocide being committed against the white people in South Africa?If the motive of the crime is theft, why is it necessary to take the life of the person that has already handed over their cell-phone or wallet?If the motive for the crime is hijacking, why take the woman with them, gang-rape her and then slit her throat? If the motive for house-breaking is petty theft, why throw boiling water over the farmers before killing them, - after forcing them to watch their wives being gang-raped and tortured in front of them?Were the mass murders in Bosnia "merely crime related"?Were the mass murders of Jews in Germany during WWII "merely crime related"?Are the daily murders of various tribe members in Kenya "merely crime related"?WHY IS THE HUGE NUMBER OF MURDERS BEING COMMITTED AGAINST SOUTH AFRICAN WHITES LABELLED - "CRIME RELATED"?BUT... Why is it that the police can spend hundreds of thousands of Rands, and thousands of man-hours hunting down the one white that opened fire upon blacks in Skielik, whilst they cannot find any murderers of innocent, white children, women and men?In any other countries a mass extermination of any tribe on such a scale would be considered Genocide, a crime against humanity, and an international outcry would follow.Hundreds of peace keepers would be sent to South Africa.The United Nations would hold a special sitting.Headlines in the mass media would be screaming blue murder.The television channels would be filled with scenes of the dead bodies, and their grieving families.Yet in South Africa, the murder of the white tribe by the blacks is reduced to a statistic and labelled "crime".The state sponsored media hardly spares their murders a few lines.The police refuse to release statistics on the extent of the murders.What must we do to focus the world's attention on this GENOCIDE---disguised as crime?If you're a concerned citizen, whether in South Africa or internationally, you are morally bound to act---NOW!!Get letters published in your local media highlighting the plight of the white tribe in South Africa.Ask why the ANC led South African Government is suppressing crime figures.Ask why the murders of white citizens in South Africa are not being solved.If, as the media are quick to proclaim "WHITES CONDUCTING A RACIST CAMPAIGN AGAINST BLACKS" why do you not hear hundreds of reports of whites killing blacks for their cell-phones?Why are the whites not killing blacks for their cars?Why are the whites not breaking into the upper class black neighbourhoods, raping and murdering the women, before making off with their TV sets?This GENOCIDE must be brought to the attention of the world media before it is too late. Before all the Whites have been erased from the face of South Africa.Do your bit to help the White citizens of South Africa NOW!!Send this mail to everyone you know throughout the world!!Alert the world to the mass extermination taking place right in front of their eyes.Alert all white tourists that are considering a visit to South Africa of the perils they will face.Criticise the international mass media fo not very strange how the whole world is ignoring the apparent Genocide being committed against the white people in South Africa?This slaughter of whites by blacks is being portrayed in the media as - "merely crime related"Is it not very strange how the whole world is ignoring the apparent Genocide being committed against the white people in South Africa?
If the motive of the crime is theft, why is it necessary to take the life of the person that has already handed over their cell-phone or wallet? If the motive for the crime is hijacking, why take the woman with them, gang-rape her and then slit her throat?If the motive for house-breaking is petty theft, why throw boiling water over the farmers before killing them, - after forcing them to watch their wives being gang-raped and tortured in front of them?Were the mass murders in Bosnia "merely crime related"?Were the mass murders of Jews in Germany during WWII "merely crime related"?Are the daily murders of various tribe members in Kenya "merely crime related"?WHY IS THE HUGE NUMBER OF MURDERS BEING COMMITTED AGAINST SOUTH AFRICAN WHITES LABELLED - "CRIME RELATED"?BUT... Why is it that the police can spend hundreds of thousands of Rands, and thousands of man-hours hunting down the one white that opened fire upon blacks in Skielik, whilst they cannot find any murderers of innocent, white children, women and men?In any other countries a mass extermination of any tribe on such a scale would be considered Genocide, a crime against humanity, and an international outcry would follow.Hundreds of peace keepers would be sent to South Africa.The United Nations would hold a special sitting.Headlines in the mass media would be screaming blue murder.The television channels would be filled with scenes of the dead bodies, and their grieving families.Yet in South Africa, the murder of the white tribe by the blacks is reduced to a statistic and labelled "crime".The state sponsored media hardly spares their murders a few lines.The police refuse to release statistics on the extent of the murders.What must we do to focus the world's attention on this GENOCIDE---disguised as crime?If you're a concerned citizen, whether in South Africa or internationally, you are morally bound to act---NOW!!Get letters published in your local media highlighting the plight of the white tribe in South Africa.Ask why the ANC led South African Government is suppressing crime figures.Ask why the murders of white citizens in South Africa are not being solved.If, as the media are quick to proclaim "WHITES CONDUCTING A RACIST CAMPAIGN AGAINST BLACKS" why do you not hear hundreds of reports of whites killing blacks for their cell-phones?Why are the whites not killing blacks for their cars?Why are the whites not breaking into the upper class black neighbourhoods, raping and murdering the women, before making of with their TV sets?This GENOCIDE must be brought to the attention of the world media before it is too late. Before all the Whites have been erased from the face of South Africa.Do your bit to help the White citizens of South Africa NOW!!Send this mail to everyone you know throughout the world!!r their failure to report on the daily occurrence of murder and rape.PLEASE HELP!!!! PLEASE HELP!!!! PLEASE HELP!!!!Save the white citizens of South Africa NOW!!

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Official blamed for inciting xenophobic attacks
THE Western Cape ANC councillor being investigated for inciting an attack on 2000 Zimbabweans is now under fire from his own political allies.
More than 300 members of the ANC-affiliated South African National Civic Organisation marched in De Doorns yesterday, calling for the removal of ANC ward councillor Mpumelelo Lubisi – this time after he called for the deportation of about 1000 Lesotho nationals who stay in the town.
The Sanco members have appealed to Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Sicelo Shiceka to remove Lubisi as their councillor.
“If you do not remove this councillor we will show you how to do so,” Sanco chairperson Bonisile Haus warned Shiceka yesterday.
Several community members said they were angry because when they questioned Lubisi about the slow pace of service delivery in the area, he blamed the Zimbabweans and allegedly incited young people to attack them.
Haus said: “Our youths were incited by his words to displace Zimbabweans, and their actions caused them to be arrested. Now he has again used hateful speech against Lesotho nationals.”
According to other alliance leaders in De Doorns, Lubisi called at a public meeting recently for the deportation of the Lesotho nationals who live in their own informal settlement known as Maseru.
Lubisi allegedly said that the Sotho-speaking residents should be “chased out” of De Doorns and “deported back to the homeland from which they came ”.
The ANC confirmed last month that they had suspended Lubisi while they investigated allegations that he incited a group of locals last year to attack the Zimbabweans living in De Doorns. More than 1300 Zimbabweans have been living in a United Nations refugee camp on a field in the town ever since.
Sanco also accused the municipality of wasting money on setting up serviced land for shacks, instead of building houses.
“For more than 17 years this community has had only one housing project. This project has only 147 RDP houses that were all built during (Nelson) Mandela’s term,” said the Sanco memorandum.
Lubisi has denied the allegations against him.
“What I said is that if you don’t have a South African identity book you don’t belong here. When people ask me at a meeting I can’t say Lesotho nationals are South African citizens,” Lubisi said.
He accused Sanco of trying to sabotage his project to move people living on dangerous mountain slopes and in the river bed to suitable land before the winter floods.

(Sowetan )

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